Daily Column – 30th March 2022

March started out as a bear and ended up as a bull for the US stock market. Stocks have regained all of their losses since the start of the Ukraine conflict and, with another push, might end the year in the black.

Apple, the world’s most valuable firm, is leading the charge. It’s currently on a winning streak akin to Amy Schneider’s:

Apple has now gained for 11 trading days in a row, its longest winning streak since 2003. (before it released the iPhone).

It’s just $3/share shy of its all-time closing high and has a market valuation of $3 trillion.

On Wall Street, the Hakuna Matata days appear to be returning. The VIX, also known as the “fear index,” has dropped to its lowest point since January. Bitcoin has risen over 36% since its January low. In addition, given to strong demand from retail investors, meme stocks like as AMC and GameStop have recently soared.

What exactly is going on?

Although the market is more difficult to decipher than a protective adolescent, we can at least float a few possibilities to explain the rally:

Ukraine and Russia appear to be on the verge of reaching an agreement. Following a round of face-to-face talks in Turkey, Russia said that it will “dramatically reduce” its military presence in the Kyiv region. Despite the United States’ scepticism, any progress toward a truce in Ukraine is a positive sign for investors.

Investors believe the Fed will be able to stay the course. The Federal Reserve has begun a high-stakes campaign of raising interest rates while avoiding a recession. For one thing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that he is not concerned about a downturn in the near future.

Stocks are less expensive. When you lower the price of an item, more people will want to buy it. Investors pounced on certain deals after the major sell-off at the start of the year.

The stock market rally could be weak if the battle continues to rage and supply lines remain congested. In the bond market, where a part of the yield curve inverted yesterday, investors are more gloomy. In the past, such a move has signalled the start of a recession.

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