Daily Column – 21st March 2022

There’s a good analogy for what’s going on in Ukraine based on how the viral images show Russian tanks stuck in mud: More than three weeks into this fight, the Institute for the Study of War thinks it’s going to end in a stalemate (ISW).

As you can see, this is how the well-known research group came to this conclusion.

  1. Russia’s first campaign hasn’t worked. It tried to take Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other major cities in Ukraine in the first few days of the war, but it hasn’t been able to get them because of its own mistakes and strong resistance from the Ukraine.

Two: It’s taking a long time to get out of the city of Mariupol. Russia has put a suffocating siege on a city in the southeastern part of Ukraine and shelled it all the time. But the ISW says that by spending so much time and money on Mariupol, Russia’s other projects don’t have enough combat power. People in the city say that even if Russia takes the city (which they say “isn’t even a city anymore”), it might not make a big difference in the balance of power in the war.

It is not working for Russia with the way they are doing things right now. Its military is stretched thin, and it’s fighting small-scale, local battles that don’t work. Take a break from the invasion and regroup with more resources so you can launch a concentrated assault that has enough power. But it doesn’t look like it is, according to the ISW.

A stalemate is when there are no more moves to be made.

Nothing. A lot of people died in trench warfare during World War I, so researchers say it’s likely to be very violent and bloody. An offensive by both sides that doesn’t move the needle is called “stalemate.” More people might die in this war because stymied Russian forces might start firing missiles at populated areas to make the Ukrainians give up and give in.

There could be a fight for weeks or months, the ISW said. Sustaining Western military support for Ukraine will play a big role in how the war ends.

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